IMCOMPETENT POLLIES

[Sololeum]

This exchange fills you with confidence about the competence of Ministers of the Crown - NO!!

[quote]Dr JOHN KAYE: Minister, are you personally aware the IEA, that is the
International Energy Agency, in its July 2007 medium-term oil market report said:
Despite four years of high oil prices, this report sees increasing market tightness beyond 2010 with OPEC spare capacity declining to minimum levels by 2012. I do not know whether you are familiar with the IEA. Are you aware of the IEA?

The Hon. ERIC ROOZENDAAL: No.
Dr JOHN KAYE: You are not aware of the IEA?
The Hon. ERIC ROOZENDAAL: No.
CHAIR: Could you give the full name?
Dr JOHN KAYE: The International Energy Agency.
The Hon. ERIC ROOZENDAAL: Oh, yes, I am aware of the International Energy Agency.
Dr JOHN KAYE: Good. So you are aware that it does predictions of long-term energy
prices and long-term availability of energy stocks, primary energy stocks?
The Hon. ERIC ROOZENDAAL: Is there a point to this question?
Dr JOHN KAYE: No, it is a question. Are you aware that that is one of the functions of the
IEA?
The Hon. ERIC ROOZENDAAL: I will accept your advice on that.
Dr JOHN KAYE: But you were not aware that what it is now saying is that we are about to
head into a period of extremely high oil prices?
The Hon. ERIC ROOZENDAAL: And?
Dr JOHN KAYE: Well, are you aware or not aware of that? It is a yes or no answer,
Minister, it would not be that hard.
The Hon. ERIC ROOZENDAAL: No, I was not aware of that.
Dr JOHN KAYE: So, what we take from that is that there is no planning within the Roads
and Traffic Authority associated with the now commonly accepted scenario that oil prices are going to significantly rise and there will be a significant shortage of oil over the next 10 years. There is no sense of planning for that at all?
The Hon. ERIC ROOZENDAAL: I am the Minister for Roads. One of my agencies is the
Roads and Traffic Authority, and we have a responsibility to maintain the road network and deal with the challenges of maintaining the road network. If there is a change in petrol prices, that increase in the cost of petrol will be reflected in traffic flows, I imagine. But I do not see it as a core responsibility of either my ministry or the Roads and Traffic Authority to monitor
the*what was it, the IAE?
Dr JOHN KAYE: The IEA, Minister.
The Hon. ERIC ROOZENDAAL: I do not see that as a core responsibility of my agency.
Dr JOHN KAYE: So, am I correct in saying your agency is making planning decisions
about motorways?
The Hon. ERIC ROOZENDAAL: No, planning decisions are made by the Ministry of
Planning. My agency delivers road infrastructure, the maintenance of road infrastructure, road safety and public transport corridors.
Dr JOHN KAYE: In respect of the M4 East corridor, if the M4 East is developed your
department will be a proponent*that is, you will be putting forward to the people of New South Wales and the planning Minister the idea that we should build a road project that is larger and more expensive than the Sydney Harbour Bridge?
The Hon. ERIC ROOZENDAAL: Potentially.
Dr JOHN KAYE: So, you will do that without having looked at the likely demands for the
use of the road?
The Hon. ERIC ROOZENDAAL: No, quite the contrary.
Dr JOHN KAYE: So, you are saying to me that when you develop such a project you do make forward traffic demand projections?
The Hon. ERIC ROOZENDAAL: Absolutely.
Dr JOHN KAYE: Across what period do you make that forward traffic demand projection,
roughly?
Mr WIELINGA: We usually do 10- and 20-year projections on our traffic modelling.
Dr JOHN KAYE: So you are telling me that you are doing 10- and 20-year projections of
traffic modelling with no forecasting of oil prices? Is that correct?
Mr WIELINGA: What we are doing is traffic projections. The transport data centre does
project ions of land use changes and residential growth, and so forth. It predicts movements, it predicts the share of people of using different particular modes. A number of good research articles show what happens when fuel prices increase. Alternative vehicles come along. A lot of research shows people's strong preference for their commuting modes and there is an expectation in these different scenarios that there will still be a high demand for all transport modes.
Dr JOHN KAYE: I must say, I am quite shocked. You are telling me that your presumption
is that traffic demand, demand for use of Road Traffic Authority facilities, will not be substantially affected by a significant increase in oil prices?
Mr WIELINGA: I am not saying there will not be a significant impact on traffic movement. What I am saying is it will affect a number of things. It may affect the type of vehicles on the road they may become smaller with small engines. There may be more hybrid vehicles, they might move to electric vehicles. A lot of different alternatives become viable at that time, depending on the price of oil.
Dr JOHN KAYE: Minister, help me here, maybe I have missed something. On the one hand
you said to me earlier that you do not look at oil price predictions, yet we are doing 10- and 20-year traffic projections and the best we can say is, assuming the price of oil rises, that there is a significant rise in the price of oil, it does not matter because there will be other technologies or other vehicles that will compensate, and the demands somehow or other will not be affected significantly by a major rise in the price of oil? Is that the thinking of the Roads and Traffic Authority and the Minister?
The Hon. ERIC ROOZENDAAL: I think you need to take a step back, because you are
getting a bit carried away here. The reality is it is the responsibility of my agency and of all
governments to anticipate demands and needs of a growing population. It is the responsibility of the Roads and Traffic Authority to manage the road network and plan for the growth of that network and to deal with the challenge of increasing vehicles. A number of issues in relation to the number of vehicles travelling on our roads impact on that. There has been a huge growth in the availability of motor vehicles to families. Whereas 10 or 15 years ago most families had one to two vehicles, it is now quite common for families to have three to four vehicles. People are travelling further and more diversely around Sydney, so there is a growing demand. What impacts on traffic is obviously geographical location people are commuting further to work using private vehicles*cost of petrol, cost of vehicles, the elasticity of incomes if people have
more to spend and it costs relatively less to use their vehicles, they use their vehicles. There are a number of issues. Of course, we are planning for the traffic challenges of New South Wales. For you to suggest that the only*
Dr JOHN KAYE: It is a bit like planning with your eyes closed?
The Hon. ERIC ROOZENDAAL: No. What are you suggesting?
Dr JOHN KAYE: I am suggesting this is quite scandalous; that the Roads and Traffic Authority is planning roads worth hundreds of millions of dollars and is proposing that the people of New South Wales invest hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars in roads, with no estimate or even scenarios of where it thinks the price of oil is going, without being aware of the IEA with the Minister thinking it was the IAE and you are asking us to commit to
massive amounts of public money. No comment? We will change topic was obviously we are not getting anywhere further with that.
[/quote]

[mauzi]

Gee Sololeum, What do you say to that. Quite a worry I think. You would expect this to be on every pollies planning schedule - rather than the head in the sand attitude that hopes someone else will deal with it or pretending that no potential problem even exists. Guess it comes back to the individual to do the planning and make the moves.

Cheers
Mauzi